Duke +32.5 2.2% play
I really think there is line value in this number. It's on a neutral field. Duke went on the road to play Clemson last year and they were 28 point dogs, which would suggest they would be +26.5 on a neutral against Clemson last year. They lost that game 35-6 so it's not the first time this team has had to go up against a giant like Alabama.
This is the 8th season in a row that Alabama is opening the season up on a neutral field, and this is their largest favorite role against a Power 5 opponent. Their average margin of victory over that period is 25.7 points, and they certainly deserve a lot of hype coming into this game, but I feel Duke can hang for several reasons. Duke and coach Cutcliffe have been great as a dog going 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games. Alabama has a lot of moving parts right now having to replace both coordinators, and I feel like there is a recipe out there to beat Tua now. Duke has a lot of experience in this game in the secondary, and they run a 4-2-5 defense, and if Tua is not careful I could see Duke coming up with a couple of turnovers. Their secondary returns all 4 starters and is led by Jim Thorpe nominee Michael Cater. With that being said I think the concentration here will be to run the ball, because that's what Duke's weakness is on defense which leads to a moving clock.
Duke has had to replace their receivers, and QB but Quentin Harris has experience at QB, and is mobile, which is always something Alabama struggles with. Harris knows the system, and he's playing behind an offensive line that returns all starters. Harris in two starts last year had 6 TD's 0 INT"s 0 sacks, and 150 yards rushing, and 400 yards passing.
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