Wisconsin -10.5 3.3% play

This line dropped 3 points in the last day or so making it a play for me. I was hoping to catch a 10, but that does not look like it will happen. I expect the line to move back up towards 13.5 by Friday night.  I'm not at all concerned with the weather as this game figures to be a slower tempo game with these two head coaches, and it's supposed to be almost 10 degrees cooler tomorrow night in Tampa than tonight.  South Florida returns 9 starters on offense, but I don't think I can get too excited about that as they just were not a good offense last year vs. good defenses.  They faced a ton of bad defenses, and scored points, but against top 60 defenses they averaged just 17 points per game.  Their QB Blake Barnett (Alabama transfer) completed just 53% of his passes for 206 yards per game, with 5 TD/4INT's.  Their running game produced just 3.4 yards per game, and here they go up against a Wisconsin defense that is hungry to prove they are back to the 2017 version where they were fully healthy.

On the flip side of the ball Wisconsin offense is led by the best RB in college football in Jonathan Taylor, and I expect they should be able to run all over South Florida.  Against top 50 rushing offenses South Florida allowed 303 yards rushing per game, and nearly 4 rushign TD's a game and gave up 34 points per game.  Wisconsin last year rushed for over 300 yards in 6 games last year and averaged 41.33 ppg going 6-0 and winning by 21 points per game.

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