Rutgers -16 2.2% play
Okay so this play is not going to excite you by any means. Rutgers a 16 point favorite are you kidding me? This is the newsletter I signed up for? This is one of those ugly plays though, and I like it enough for a few different reasons. If you listened to my podcast earlier in the week you heard me talk about Umass and their coaching staff. Walt Bell takes over, and it will be his first time as a head coach, but he's also taking on play calling duties. Not an ideal situation for a first time coach, who was not very good as an offensive coordinator. He spent 16-17 with Maryland, and the offense got worst 91st, to 120th in YPP, and then last year with Florida State where they ranked 109th in YPP on offense. Last time I checked Umass does not have the talent of Maryland or Florida State and since switching to an Independent school their recruiting has also gone down, and they return only 8 starters.
Rutgers closed the 2018 season with 11 straight losses, and we could not be buying any lower on this team. Your reaction to me playing Rutgers as a double digit favorite is the exact reason why I'm doing it, but more goes into it than that. Rutgers needs a feel good win to start this year, and they were in a very similar situation last year as a 16.5 point favorite to open the year against Texas State, and they won 35-7. They had another big role as a favorite in 2017 against Morgan State -41, that many people laughed at and they won 65-0. HC Chris Ash is in his 4th year here and is definitely not afraid to run it up against worse teams. Rutgers also has 8 starters back on offense, and I feel like a night game on a Friday night will motivate this team to give it their best to start the season.
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