UCLA +3 4.4% NCAAF POD


3's popped up again at a few locations, and I'm going to grab the Bruins here. These two opened up the 2018 season @ UCLA, and the Bruins had hype with Chip Kelly taking over, and were 14 point favorites, and lost outright. I see a bit of revenge here for UCLA, and I don't really think that there is an 11 point difference between these two teams from last year. UCLA was breaking in an entirely new system, and they lost their QB halfway through the game. This season they return 19 starters, and are in Chip Kelly's second year of the system, and we saw improvements down the stretch as the offense averaged 432 yards per game over their last 8 compared to 312 over the first 4. They also faced a top 10 strength of schedule. Power 5 head coaches have done really well in their second year as a dog over the past 4 years 99-80 ATS, and I like the fact that UCLA is getting points here.

Cincinnati had a great year last year and I have been extremely impressed with Luke Fickell taking Cinci to an 11-2 season a year ago. They had one of the weaker schedules however, and when you compare against UCLA it is very obvious. Cincinnati's offense faced an average 75th ranked YPP defense, compared to UCLA'S 40TH opponent average. Their defense faced an average 67th opponent YPP offense, and that is inflated by facing Central Florida. Compare that against UCLA opponent offense ranking 53rd. It's also worth noting that Cinci has a much bigger game on deck at Ohio State.


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