LSU -7.5 3.3% PLAY 

The AAC is getting too much credit this bowl season, and they have not showed up, 0-5 ATS.  They have losses of 18, 3, 56, and 29 this bowl season.  They went 0-2 vs. the SEC in the regular season losing by 27.5 points.  LSU played the far tougher schedule, and arguably the toughest in the country.  The one thing about LSU that we know is the fact that they play hard for Ed Oregeron no matter the situation.  I really can't say that about Auburn, a team that Central Florida beat last year.  Central Florida has also done a lot of talking this past year so I think if LSU has an opportunity to run it up here they absolutely will. 

I don't know how anyone could back UCF in this game, and I did back them their last 2 games of the season, but this is stepping it up in competition.  Over their last 5 games they allowed 290 yards rushing a game.  It's a major weakness for Central Florida's defense which is not nearly as good as the unit from a season ago.  Central Florida will have a tough time stopping LSU, and if LSU can control the game they should win by double digits.  I think Joe Burrow at QB is going to have a big day running the ball here, and nobody is talking about it.

UCF also is starting a backup QB in Mack.  He did impress me with his legs, and arm against Memphis, but Memphis has the 79th ranked pass defense.  LSU has a top 10 unit, and even with guys missing the game they should press the receivers at the line.  We will know right away with Dave Aranda's style if they will be able to dominate the game.  I am betting they will.  Central Florida relies on big plays, and LSU ranks 14th in explosive defense.


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