Kentucky +6 NCAAF POD
Just 36% of bettors are backing Kentucky here, as many feel like they were a fraudulent team. I backed this team many times and faded them in the Tennessee game they lost to end the year following their loss against Georgia. This is an emotional team and a team that is highly motivated to get to 10 wins, which would be a first in 40 years. Kentucky is a senior laden team especially on defense. A couple of those guys came back when they could have played in the NFL and left early, and again they could sit out this game, but they are playing this game, because it means something to them as Josh Allen has never won a bowl game.
Kentucky's offense is the reason nobody wants to back them, but with Bennie Snell a little more healthy here, and motivating his team along with Terry Wilson, a mobile QB who has shown flashes with his arm at points this season. Penn State's defense which is young has not faced a mobile QB All year except MIchigan's Shea Patterson who rushed for 42 yards and a TD as they gave up 42 points. Wilson is much more dynamic, and I think he could be the difference maker here. Penn State's defense gave up over 2,000 yards rushing this year. They were not terrible, but they definitely can be run on, and Kentucky has dominated the line of scrimmage against far better defenses including Florida, and Miss State. A Florida team they beat on the road that just got done dominated Michigan, a team that beat Penn State 42-7.
Penn State has Trace McSorley playing in his last game, but they are used to playing in bigger games, and against bigger programs. I don't see how this game excites them and I don't think they'll be able to match Kentucky's intensity here. At the end of the day the large spread is all about perception. These teams are very similar in a lot categories including success rate differential which Kentucky is +5.2% compared to Penn State at +5.6%.
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