Missouri -9 1.1% Free Play
This is the worst Oklahoma State defense in over a decade and they are going up against a balanced offenses which is something they have only experienced once this year, and they gave up 48 points to Oklahoma. If Mike Gundy was not on the other sideline this would be a larger play, but I totally respect what Gundy has done here, and he is 8-4 in bowl games. With all of that said Oklahoma State is a popular dog, and those type of teams we like to stay away from in bowl season.
Oklahoma State, can be shut down on the ground against a Missouri run defense that ranks 28th, and that's against a very tough schedule with average rushing offenses ranked 42.5 on the season. Here they face Oklahoma State who ranked 62nd, but are without their top RB and best offensive player Justice Hill. When this team did not run for 200 yards they went 2-5 on the season. Oklahoma State's 26th ranked offense is a bit over rated when you factor in they haven't played many good defenses. Average opponent defense ranking 79.09 in ypp defense. This spread makes a lot of sense when you start digging, because if Oklahoma State can't run the ball, they will be in third and longs and they rank 73rd at protecting the QB. They also are 114th in TO margin to go along with the worst defense they have had in a while they also are one of the better teams in terms of TO margin. They were -8 this year, but in the past few years they were +3, +11, +13.
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