Michigan State +1.5 5.5% POD

It has been a rough go of it with these max plays, and we got very unlikely in my opinion and should have covered with Alabama -14, and Iowa State +125, Iowa State covered on the spread not the ML.  Here we are again, and I am going to back the team with the better defense. 

There is value on Michigan State in my opinion.  The discussion will be how bad their offense has been, but they have had a ton of injuries, and coming into this game I would predict that they have some things figured out.  I expect they will get back to running the ball with LJ Scott expected to go along with QB Brian Lewerke.  Oregon's weakness is in run defense.  They ranked 48th in rushing yards per carry, but they faced a very easy schedule with an opponent ypc average of 83rd.  Compare that with MIchigan State's run defense which ranks 2nd facing an opponent ypc average of 49.16.  When held under 4 yards per carry, Oregon is only 1-4 this season with the only win coming against San Jose State.  Michigan State has only allowed 1 team over that mark, Penn State, a game they still won on the road.

Michigan State has faced 5 really good offenses, and they held up in each one against OHio State, Penn State, Purdue, Arizona State, and Nebraska allowing 16.2 ppg on average in those games.  There is no reason to believe they can't do the same here.  I think their offense is undervalued because of the injuries.  The extra time off allowed Michigan State to get healthier, but also work in some of the younger guys with confidence at the skill position.  Watch out for Darrell Stewart, who only had 368 yards receiving on the season to have a big day.  Also Mark D'antoio a far better coach than Cristobal.  He's 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl games over the past 6 years with their only loss to Alabama.  Oregon lost as a big favorite 28-38 to Boise a season ago.


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