Virginia Tech +7 3.3% play 

This one just touched 7, and I have to grab it.  There are a few things I like about this match-up including the fact that the ACC has actually done poorly against P5 conferences, but have dominated the group of 5 going 18-4 +15.7 ppg, and 12-9-2 ATS, + 2-0 ATS with 2 outright upsets as a dog in the bowl games with Wake Forest & Duke coming up with upsets against G5 conferences.

The public is all over Cincinnati right now as I have two sources at 56 and 58%, but I'm not buying it.  Virginia Tech lost key starters on the defense, a thin group, and left them with a very young defense which clearly showed as DC Bud Foster had a rough year, but with young players that are talented they just need extra reps.  They have had a ton of extra practices, and I think this team is motivated to win this bowl game and finish with a winning record.  I don't see this young Hokies team wanting to be the first team since 1992 to finish with a losing record.  Also, I love backing teams that were 5-6 fighting to get to a bowl game.  Those teams since 2008 are an incredible 42-21 ATS in their bowl games.

Virginia Tech has the edge on offense, and played their best two games to close the year against similar competition to Cincinnati.  They beat a good Virginia team, a team that just dominated an SEC team, and they beat a group of 5 team by 21 points in Marshall.  Both of those teams were top 50 defenses much like Cincinnati and Virginia Tech put up 30+ points.  Justin Fuente is a great offensive mind and is 2-1 in bowl games.  I think it would be hard for Cinci to win this by more than a TD.  Virginia Tech also has edges in special teams and TO Margin, and their fans travel well, and they are 225 miles closer to this stadium. I feel like they will have the crowd edge to go along with all of this.  I won't be shocked if the Hokies pull the upset. 

Subscribe on iTunes