Arkansas State +1 3.3% play 

Arkansas State has been very goo din non conference games, and I trust them more in a spot they are familiar with as Nevada has not been to a bowl since 2013.  Nevada plays in the better conference, I'll admit, but it's very much front loaded with teams like Utah State, Fresno State, and Boise.  After those 3 teams it goes down hill fast in my opinion. Arkansas State lost to some pretty good teams this year including Alabama, Georgia Southern, and App State.  There is no shame there at all.

The big advantage here in my opinion is Nevada an inconsistent team turns the ball over far too much.  Ranking 108th in TO margin compared to Arkansas State who ranks 14th.  I think that will be a difference here, and I think Arkansas State has played the far tougher schedule, and they have a +7.10 % success rate on the season compared to Nevada at 2.7%.  Arkansas State, has a future NFL caliber QB in Justin Hansen who has gotten better year by year.  He finished the year with 27 TD and just 6 INT's. The Sun Belt's top teams have performed very well this bowl season and have gone 3-1 SU, and I expect it to be 4-1 after this game. 

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