Florida +6 3.3% play & ML at +210 for 1% play
Florida has all of the motivation here, and it's evident by their NFL prospects playing in this game and not sitting out while Michigan has 4 key guys starting out. Starting Tackle, RB Higdon, and their two best defensive players in Gary & Bush. Michigan also has no motivation to beat Florida as they have beaten them the last two years without any issues, while Florida will want to cap their season get to 10 wins by beating a team they have lost to the last two years.
Dan Mullen is 5-2 in bowl games and I would argue they have the better coach in this one. The key for Florida is the ability to run the ball and I think they can run the ball. They ranked 24th in yards per carry this season, and down the stretch Michigan gave up a lot of rushing yards against below average rushing offenses in Rutgers, Indiana, and Ohio State combining for 5.08 yards per carry, and all rushed for over 170 yards. Florida also has the speed to beat man to man, which is something they will see and Feleipe Franks is a much better QB this year than what Michigan saw to open last season.
Michigan's offense without Higdon will be a difference maker in my opinion, and I think Florida who has a very good defense will give Shea Patterson issues. Michigan only average 19 points per game against top 25 defenses this year. I consider Florida a top 25 defense that can get to the QB. Their weakness is maybe stopping the run, but in a powerful SEC conference it's no surprise that they struggled at times. The SEC went 9-2 ATS against other Power 5 conferences this year compared to the Big Ten which went 6-6. I think Florida has a shot to win this game, and if I like them at +6 I have to play the ML as there has been a lot variance this bowl season.
