Duke +3.5 -105 4.5% NCAAF POD
There is a lot to unpack in this game, but I am going to start with bettin value. Duke lost it's last two games by a combined score of 94-13. They lost their last game by 30+ and Temple won their last game by 30+, Value on Duke here, who was really unhealthy down the stretch, and I think Daniel Jones their NFL caliber QB was hurt all season long, and the extra time to rest is certainly a good thing for this offense. They have a key player on the defense in Giles-Harris who is questionable, but I'm betting he plays along with Humphreys who are two key players on the defense. THey are NFL caliber LB's, and I'm not worried about them sitting out to protect their health for a possible NFL draft. Humphrey's said - "I don't think that's a Duke thing," Humphreys said Tuesday. "We're going to play every game that we can. We're going to do it because we love the guys around us. I don't think that will happen at Duke." The defense is healthier, they started the season allowing just 341 yards the first 7 games, and allowed 529 the last 5. I think that changes here.
Duke, and coach David Cutcliffe with extra time to prepare has been a different team. Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in his career in bowl games, and at Duke he has eclipsed 31 points each time they have gotten here. There is concern that Duke's offense won't show up, but in two games against decent opponents Temple gave up 45 points to Boston College, and 52 to Central Florida. I'm not going to buy in too much to Duke's offensive struggles as injuries to their QB had a big impact on their stats this season. Temple also has an interim coach Ed Foley, who will not get the job, but I hear is very pumped up for this bowl game. He was in 2016 as well in a similar situation where Temple won their last 6 games, they won 6 of 7 here, and they lost to Wake Forest, an ACC team as 12 point favorites. Here they are 3.5 point favorites against another ACC team. The ACC went 18-4 +15.7 points per game and 12-9-2 ATS vs. Group of 5 teams, and as mentioned before Temple did not win or cover in their only game against the ACC this year.
To put a bow on this game. Temple needs to force turnovers to win. They forced 12 in their final 3 games, but Duke has only turned the ball over 17 times all season. Temple +10 in wins and -5 in losses. Temple, I think more likely to lose the TO battle as they have turned the ball over in every game this season. Temple also committing +3.5 more penalties, they are worse in third down offense, defense and red zone offense TD%. I think the wrong team is favored. If I hear Giles-Harris is a GO, I'll be back for a ML play.
