Minnesota / GA Tech Over 57 3.3% Play
Two poor defenses are meeting in this game, in a dome in Detroit, the day after Christmas, and I see advantage to the offenses. First of all Georgia Tech one of the better offenses in the country as they rank 5th in success rate, and Minnesota, playing younger guys down the stretch clearly got better and have two receivers that will give Georgia Tech issues here in Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman. The total has fallen 4 points since opening, and I think there is enough value on the over. I also lean Minnesota, but without knowing the 6 suspended players and with a couple of other guys already sitting out for the draft I just can't take Minnesota, but maybe in live action as I do view the Big Ten to be much better than the ACC this year.
PJ Fleck, is an offensive coach, and he goes up agaisnt a poor defense here. Georgia Tech top 50 in shortest amount of time for opponents to score, and 100th in yards per play, 126th in defensive success rate, 92nd in explosive defense. There is no category that Georgia Tech's defense is good, so I don't care if this is Paul Johnson's last game I expect Fleck, an offensive minded coach with time to prepare to put up 30+ points here. Minnesota averaged 37.2 points per game when facing an opponent that is below average defense 69th or worse in yards per play allowed, and Georgia Tech just 2-4 against bowl opponents with an average total points scored of 68.8. On the flip side Minnesota is playing a top 50 offense, and they've never seen the option and they rank 115th in rushing yards per carry allowed. Against top 50 opponents they allow on average 33.5 points per game.
Georgia Tech gets to go up against a poor defense, and when they play a poor defense like Minnesota they average 45.5 points per game. All signs pointing to the over for me here. Minnesota plays with quick pace and their defense also allows opponents to score quickly, and their defense gives up explosive plays ranking 111th in the country. Georgia Tech may slow the game down, but the option on turf, and with the speed of Georgia Tech I think Minnesota also gives up 30+ points and maybe 40+. I expect a shootout here.
