Eastern Michigan +3.5 -120 4% Play
You can find Eastern Michigan at +100 or +105 at +3, so buying the half point here is worth it to me with a team that typically plays in a lot of close games. The public is heavily on Georgia Southern from the Sun Belt, and I don't understand exactly why. While the MAC Conference has not done well in recent years, just 1-4 last year in bowl games I think that gives us some value. Eastern Michigan is a team that played very well out of conference play beating Purdue on the road, something Ohio State could not do, playing right with San Diego State on the road in which was their third road game in a row. This team is very excited to be here, and plays with a lot of passion and heart, and I expect that their preparation had just a little more effort than Georgia Southern, the favorite.
Georgia Southern will run the option, and that typically gives teams issues. However, we saw one team with a worse run defense than Eastern Michigan - Louisiana Monroe ranks 79th to Eastern Michigan's 69th hold Georgia Southern to 138 yards and 3 yards per carry. Why? Monroe had an extra week to prepare. Here we have Eastern Michigan who already saw the option and plenty of time to prepare. Eastern Michigan lost one game by more than a TD and yes that was against Army who also runs the option. However, Eastern Michigan held Army to just 4 yards per carry their second fewest yards per carry on the season. The issue was they could not stop Army on third down. What differs between Army and Georgia's Southern's offense is Army has a lot more experience running it to perfection and they are much more efficient. Army one of the best in the country converting third downs at a 55% clip compared to Georgia Southern's 39% third down clip. Eastern Michigan one of the better 3rd down defenses holding opponents to 37%, and in the red zone their defense is excellent holding opponents to 47% TD's. It's also not like Georgia Southern has been consistent running the ball they have struggled in other games against Troy, who does have a good run defense, but also against Texas State who ranks 85th in run defense. So 2 poor run defenses have held Georgia Southern in check.
Georgia Southern also relied greatly on turnovers, and lead the nation at +22, as they did not have a single game with a negative TO margin, and only one at even. I think that can change having not played in a few weeks, getting used to hard hitting football I would not be shocked if Eastern MIchigan forced some fumbles here. Eastern Michigan 9th in TO margin, so it should be a good match-up there. This game will have limited possessions with two run first teams and the total is a very low 45 and has dropped from the 47.5. Take the dog in bowl games where the total is less than 55 and you would cover the spread 55% of the time. Another winning trend is fading the % of bets on a side, and you have to do it late when public money comes in, and as of this morning we have well over 60% of the money coming in on Georgia Southern, despite not getting the best of the line move which has moved more than 5 points. Taking Eastern Michigan is well worth the value here.
