Tulane / Louisiana Over 61 3.3% play
I have flip flopped on the lean on the side so I'll be playing the total in this game which I have a great feeling for. Tulane has been far too inconsistent this year, but they have put up points in bunches at time, and fired their offensive coordinator and hired Louisiana's old OC for this one. So we know there will be a concentration on offense for this game, and new plays come into play with an offensive coordinator making Louisiana really not know what to prepare for. Louisiana's defense is already one of the worst in the country ranking 116th in yards pe rplay, 99th vs. the run, and 115th vs. the pass, 96th in success rate defense. I think there is a good reason why Tulane is the favorite here coming from the better conference, and I think they could score into the 30's.
For Lafayette, their offense has been explosive, and balanced. They rank 13th in yards per play, and that is elite when you consider they have played 5 elite top 25 defenses including Alabama, App State 2x, and Miss State, all in the top 10. Tulane is pretty good on defense, but they are more in the middle, and unless you are an elite defense Lafayette gets their points. In fact in games against top 25 defenses they average just 15.2 points per game, but in their other games against defenses not in the top 25 they averaged 43.3 points per game. They also are an explosive offense ranking 12th in explosive plays, and are going up against Tulane who is 114th in explosive defense. I see a lot of points in this one.
