Conference USA runner up Middle Tennessee vs. Sunbelt Champion App State. I voted Sunbelt as the better overall conference, but I feel like MTSU has more motivation here when you factor in Father and Son QB & Coach will be playing in their last game together for Middle Tennessee. The Stockstill's have had a solid 4 year run, and they go up against another Sun Belt team in a bowl game. Last year they beat Arkansas State. App State loses their head coach to Louisville and DC- Mark Ivey will take over here.
Middle Tennessee has put up pretty good offensive and defensive numbers this year despite having played 3 teams from the best conference in the nation in the SEC. Strength of schedule clearly on the side of Middle Tennessee. When you look at these conferences they are pretty close, but CUSA challenges themselves more with 23 games this season vs. the Power 5 and 11 vs. the SEC where they went 7-4 ATS.
The Sun Belt on the other hand just 12 games vs. the Power 5 and went 3-9 ATS. Yet this is clearly the best team from the Sun Belt, but I think losing your head coach Scott Satterfeld is a big lose, he was the coach here for 5 years, and all of these players played for him now suddenly he's gone. The team just won the Sun Belt Championship game which was the inaugural game. They beat a team that was 116th in yards per play allowed, and a team that could not stop the run ranking 99th. MIddle Tennessee comes into this game with stronger #s and match up better in my opinion.
App State's strength of running the ball has gotten weaker over the last few weeks. Really ever since they lost Jalin Moore the team hasn't been the same offensively. They will go up against a 60th ranked defense that is better than that ranking when you factor in they have faced 3 SEC opponents. THe last two weeks they faced UAB, a team that runs the ball over 60% of the time, so I think they'll be ready for this game. This game will be in New Orleans inside so weather won't impact this game at all and I like for MIddle Tennessee to have a shot to win the game outright.
