Northern Illinois & Buffalo have 6 common conference opponents, and Northern Illinois is +74 yards per game, while Buffalo is only +24 yards in those games, yet Buffalo is a favorite over a field goal, because Northern Illinois dropped their last two games that were meaningless considering they had this trip locked up 3 weeks ago. Northern Illinois also comes from the stronger West Division in this conference, and has a lot of experience getting to Detroit. Buffalo has been here once, 10 years ago. In non-conference play Northern Illinois by far faced a tougher schedule with Iowa, Utah, BYU, and Florida State while Buffalo had Temple (okay), Delaware State, Army (got blown out), and Rutgers.
Buffalo is led by their QB Tyree Jackson, who has been a shell of himself over the past three games, he passed for 126 yards/game, 49% completion percentage, with only 2 TD's and 3 INT's. The passing defenses he's faced over those three games rank 102nd, 88th, and 92nd. The "alleged" NFL talent with the big arm has not impressed me down the stretch, and Northern Illinois has the 30th ranked pass defense, with one of the best pass rushers and they rank 26th at getting to the QB. Ohio, who ranked 69th vs. the run, and 88th vs. the pass, and 55th in sack rate held Buffalo to 17 points. I expect Northern Illinois to make this their type of game.
Northern Illinois will play great defense, special teams, and control the line of scrimmage. Northern Illinois has a running QB in Marcus Childers who had 456 rushing yards in conference play. Buffalo's rush defense was really challenged by Ohio giving up over 400 yards, and could not defend their QB Nathan Rourke who had 77 yards rushing. When Northern Illinois played Ohio they controlled the line of scrimmage holding Ohio to 46 yards, as they ran for 255. I expect Northern Illinois with the better defense to do the same in this game, and the fact that they are dogs on a neutral field has me excited to be betting this one. Northern Illinois also the better special teams here ranking 43rd. compared to Buffalo's 90th ranking.
