Notre Dame -11 1.1% Free Play
It's well documented that I don't think Notre Dame is a top 10 team never mind a final 4, but this is a situation where I think they are the far superior team at just about every level including coaching where it's clear Clay Helton will be fired after this season regardless of what happens in this game. I don't see USC fighting for a bowl game either, as I think the majority of the team is over the season. I think they may hang around early in this game but Notre Dame will pull away late, and they will be well aware of the point spread.
USC's defense has given up 30+ points 5 times this season, and they have not faced an offense that can run and pass as well as Notre Dame can. Since Dexter Williams came back at RB Notre Dame has won all of their games by double digits with the exception of their game against Pitt where they were -2 TO margin. That does not happen here as USC is 113th in TO margin. JT Daniels is going to turn the ball over here a couple times, and that's another thing that will allow Notre Dame to cover this spread. Notre Dame also has won by 29, 20,21, 29, and 5 points when they run for more than 200 yards in a game, which is likely against USC's run defense that is ranked 64th against a very weak strength of schedule facing on average 70th ranked rushing offense. UCLA ran for more than 300 yards a week ago, and Notre Dame ran for over 300 yards last season. Notre Dame will win this game and face Clemson in the college football playoff as 9.5 point dog, and I'll be on Clemson when it happens.
