Texas AM -3 -115 3.5% PLAY
This is a good match-up for the Aggies who are 6-0 ATS at home this season. They are the unranked team facing a top 10 team, but are favorites? I'll take the Aggies who have played the tougher schedule, and the better match-up. The weakness of A&M is their secondary, but LSU prefers to run first, and A&M has arguably the best run stop unit of any team in the country. LSU only averages 3.61 yards per carry ont he road, and I predict they'll be held under 100 yards in this game. That means Joe Burrow has to win the game, and his team is just not protecting him well enough to take advantage of the Aggies pass defense as they rank 91st, and go up against A&M who ranks 11th at getting to the QB. Since A&M will create plenty of 3rd and 8's this is a major issue in this game.
On the flip side the Aggies have a very balanced offense, they can run and they can pass, and I think they will have success at home at night and LSU's defense is really banged up right now and will be without 3 starters in the secondary. LSU's defense has been run on particularly on the road, so I'm betting we see that again, which should only help out Kellen Mond when he decides to throw the ball.
