You may hear a lot of sharps pointing to a hangover for UCF after Gameday was on campus last week, but I don't see it playing an instate rival South Florida. Central Florida has all the motivation to run the score up here, to get more looks at the college football playoff and I think they totally can do it when you look at South Florida's schedule their defense has not played well in many games against teams that are very good at running, but average or below passing and vice versa. They faced one opponent that was great at both, and that was Houston. They gave up 57 points in that game, and I think we could see similar results here.

Houston's 14th ranked rushing offense has faced opponent average run defense ranking 79th, compare that with UCF's 12th ranking facing OA run defense ranking 63rd. The QB play also obviously better although not by much. UCF ranking 6th, vs. OA pass defense 76th compared to Houston 9th and 78.

UCF continues to find ways to win and cover the spread, and I think they are totally aware of the spread going into these games, and the players want to cover it and prove they are better than the experts are giving them credit for. USF's strength is running the football, but if they get down early they are going to struggle to come back considering they can't protect the QB and rank 87th in QB Rating going up against the strength of UCF which is their pass defense. This cover may come late, but I think there is too much value with UCF despite all the reason some will give you to bet against them. It may be a square play, but these square plays have been cashing. UCF, also major advantage in TO margin, and special teams something nobody will talk about. UCF 2nd in TO margin compared to USF 81st ranking which will come into play here, and special teams UCF 65th rating compared to South Florida's 103rd.