Syracuse faced 4 teams that finished the year ranked last year, and 3 of those games were on the road against LSU, NC State, and Miami, they lost those 3 games, but all by single digits. They beat Clemson at home last year, and this year they faced Clemson on the road, a team we would all say is better than last year's Clemson team, and Clemson had revenge, and it was a travel spot for Syracuse, and they still lost by single digits. Syracuse is a couple of plays away from being 10-0.
What has Notre Dame proven? Their best win so far is week 1 vs. Michigan, a totally different team. I get that Notre Dame is a completely different teams since Ian Book took over, but let's look at some of the passing defenses he has faced since taking over, Wake Forest 79th, Stanford 88th, Virginia Tech 83rd, Pitt 95th, Navy 127th, Northwestern 57th - They had just 24 points late vs. Northwestern and won by 10 by luck. Here Syracuse brings the #49th ranked pass defense, and they are aggressive and rank #16 in sack rate. This is the spot that Syracuse can win the game in my opinion, because Ian Book who did not play this game is going to come into a game where against a fast athletic defense, and he might be off just enough to allow Syracuse to get an early lead.
Syracuse 9-2 ATS as a dog over their last 11, and Dino Babers is a very good coach, 9-2 ATS as a dog and 3-0 this year with an average margin of cover of 20ppg in that role this year. He has one of the best punters in the game, and that is another advantage that's just not factored into this line as it has led to Syracuse average field position start on offense on the 36.7 yard line. Notre Dame is playing with all the pressure, with many media outlets looking toward the USC game, and checking off the W's and getting them to the college football playoff, but I think Syracuse will have a shot to win this game late. The game is at Yankee Stadium, this is the 3rd time Notre Dame is traveling in 4 weeks with one of those trips to San Diego.
Aside from Notre Dame facing one of the best pass defenses and pass rush units all year, they are facing by far the best offenses all year long. NOtre Dame ranks 9th in yards per play allowed, but they have not faced many balanced offenses like Syracuse, and an offense that will move fast, and keep you on your toes. Notre Dame has faced an average offense ranking 76.1, an average rushing offense ranking 72.5, and an average passing offense of 76.5. Notre Dame also hasn't faced a team with a running QB, so Eric Dungey can give this Irish defense a new look that they haven't seen all year.
