This won't be a popular pick with 36% of the action right now, and ironically as I was looking and getting excited about TCU, the line moved 3 points in the span of an hour from +2 to -1. TCU's losses have 2 things in common, they are -12 TO Margin, and they have allowed a 158 QB rating. 5 of their 6 losses were against a top 35 passing offense, with Kansas being the one outside the top 35, but they had a 97% post game win probability there. Kansas, however 3rd in TO Margin. TCU played opponents who average #41 in TO margin in those 6 losses. Here they face Baylor who ranks 111th in TO margin, and they rank 69th in QB rating, against a poor schedule (78th average opponent pass defense).

TCU's offense is taking better care of the ball and in their last two games they are actually +2 TO margin. The fact that Baylor ranks 111th in TO margin might be advantage for TCU. TCU's offense also shouldn't be in 3rd and long situations going up against 104th ranked rushing defense they should be able to move the chains a bit easier than they are used to.

For Baylor, they need to run the ball. In their wins they average 5.6 ypc, and in their losses 3.04 ypc. TCU ranks 36th in yards per carry allowed and only Oklahoma eclipsed 5 yards per carry, and only 2 teams eclipsed 150 yards rushing, Ohio State, and Oklahoma. I see TCU dominating the line of scrimmage in this game, and that usually equals a victory. The situation also favors TCU needing 2 wins to get to a bowl they are the more desperate team while Baylor just needs 1 win in their final 2 games. Baylor has definitely been luckier with wins this year, they have two nice wins, against Kansas State, and Oklahoma State where they had post game win probability of 28% and 35%, their other wins came against UTSA, Abilane Christian, and Kansas. I think TCU who is banged up on defense has a good matchup and good line value here.