Let's first take a look at the situational spot that favors SMU. They have revenge in a very meaningful game. Both teams can clinch their division and get to the Championship game if they win out. Memphis could be peaking ahead to their showdown with Houston next, a team that SMU beat at home already especially the fact that Memphis won 65-45 last year, and that's where the revenge comes in. In that game Memphis was coming off a bye, and had the extra time to prepare, but here they are on short rest, and traveling. They did this earlier in the season and lost at Tulane in blowout fashion. Home/Away splits are huge here, as Memphis has only beaten a bad East Carolina team on the road losing to Navy, Tulane, Missouri, and SMU at home played right with Cinci, beat Navy, and beat Houston, the leader in the division.
Now let's look at the statistics and analytics. Overall, SMU's offensive statistics are misleading, as they have played a lot better of late. They have also faced a far tougher schedule with an average opponent ypp defense ranking 55.11 compared to Memphis who has faced 94.33. Defensively it looks like these two teams are the same ranking 63rd (Memphis), and 65th (SMU) in yards per play allowed, but a closer look reveals that once again Memphis has faced a weaker schedule facing 79.22, while SMU's average opponent ypp offense ranks 55.33. Need more? SMU's opponents average defensive success rate 40.16%, compared to Memphis 43.77. Opponent average offensive success rate 42.97% to 40.71% in favor of SMU. So once again it's clear that SMU not only has faced a tougher schedule, but it has been drastically tougher.
On paper this looks like a bad match-up for SMU ranking 82nd in rushing defense, but they held a Houston rushing offense under 200 yards, and that Houston rushing offense is similar ranking 14th in ypc, vs. avg opponent defense 87.5. Memphis comes into the game ranking 5th in yards per carry, and they have the leading rusher in Henderson who will flash across the media reports, but they have faced an average defense ranking 91.11 in stopping the run. Also, SMU likes to pass more than they run, but are facing Memphis #7 ranked pass defense, but hold on that pass defense ranks 7th against an average opponent QB rating of 88.88.
SMU, can get to the QB and protect their QB more in this game which is a huge advantage. They have edge in overall ranking and strength of schedule so the big key will be for SMU on defense to get Memphis into third and longs to get off the field with their pass rush. Memphis just 62nd at protecting their QB despite facing an opponent average sack rate of 96.44 in the country. Memphis ranks 41st at getting to the QB in terms of sack rate.
Special Teams is something often overlooked, but it clearly will come up in this game, and SMU has a huge advantage ranking 27th, compared to Memphis 123rd ranking. TO margin, another thing you have to look at and SMU ranks 8th in TO Margin having faced an opponent average TO margin ranking 56, compared to Memphis who is 59th, and has faced an opponent average ranking of 81.
