Miami Ohio +6.5 -105 4.5% NCAAF POD no need to buy the half point.
Miami is playing their best football right now, and with near wins on the road against Buffalo, they were in that game, and at Army and then their win last week against Ohio at home, I am impressed. This is not out of the ordinary for this team to go on a run at the end of the season with this head coach and QB Gus Ragland. Miami Ohio will be the more motivated team here on Wednesday night as they need wins in their final two games, while Northern Illinois has clinched a spot in the MAC Championship after Ball State shocked Western Michigan in OT last night.
Northern Illinois I would argue is a bit over rated at 7-3, as they have gone 3-0 in coin flip games while Miami Ohio 4-6 has gone 0-4 in coin flip games. I think these teams are pretty even otherwise, and getting 6.5 points to a team with a very good defense, going up against a one dimensional offense with more motivation on the side of Miami makes me really like this game here.
Northern Illinois 126th in ypp offense, has faced some of the best defenses in the country, but here they will face one of the better defenses in MAC play as Miami Ohio ranks 41st in ypp defense, and 11th vs. the run which is the strength of Northern Illinois. Miami Ohio also ranks #1 vs. the pass and has faced better passing teams than Northern Illinois who ranks 94th in QB Rating.
Gus Ragland will be the difference here, going up against Northern Illinois struggling pass defense. Ragland has been able to make good decisions all year, and he's rarely sacked which is the one thing Northern Illinois pass defense relies on. Northern Illinois defense as a whole is elite ranking 10th in ypp allowed, but they have weaknesses having faced offenses that just aren't very good ranking 82.2 on average in ypp. Yet they still have -0.2 ypp differential on the season. Their run defense ranks a peculiar 100th in ypc allowed. Miami Ohio's rushing offense is better than their 71st ranking having faced an opponent defense ranking 46.7. So, I think Miami Ohio can score in the 20's and cover this spread and possibly pull the upset.
