Navy is a dangerous team as a 20+ point dog, because as a team that runs the triple option they limit possessions. Since 1980 Navy is 34-14 ATS as a 20+ point dog, and when you combine that stat with all 3 service academies they are 69-32-3 ATS. Army was in this situation at Oklahoma as a 29 point dog earlier this season and nearly pulled the upset.

Navy has faced a much challenging schedule so I think we have some hidden value in the line when you consider they have faced an average opponent defense ranking 56th in yards per play allowed compared to UCF's 74th. They have faced an average opponent offense ranking 50th in YPP, while UCF has faced #70. So I know the stats look like UCF should probably be a 35 point favorite, but put that into consideration here.

I understand this is a bad Navy team, but they still have the triple option that is challenging for a young defense like Central Florida to prepare for. Central Florida ranks 73rd vs. the run, and I think Navy can really hold onto the ball and limit the # of possessions in this game. Navy has had 48+ rushes in nearly every game, and those are the type of games that UCF is in closer battles. Against Temple last week they gave up 46 rushes for 226 yards and won by only 12, and that game was closer early. Against Memphis they gave up 52 carries for 281 yards and they won by only 1, and earlier in the year they were in a back and forth game that they ultimately won by 20 against FAU who ran the ball 50x for 320 yards. UCF has a bigger game next week they have to be looking ahead to against Cincinnati, and Navy was a 23 point dog on a neutral field to Notre Dame and covered just 2 weeks ago. Are we saying UCF is as good as Notre Dame?