Normally I'd look to fade a team coming off their 7th loss of the season, but the Tarheels have been in a ton of games this year rarely losing by double digits, and they are facing their rival who they lost to the last 2 years. We have a typical sell high buy low situation as North Carolina just got beat by Georgia Tech by 10, and Duke beat Miami on the road. Many will point to the fact that these two have the common road game at Miami. North Carolina lost a mid week game by 37 points, while Duke won by 8 in a sloppy game last week with weather having a huge impact, but this is giving us 2 or 2.5 points of value in my opinion.

When North Carolina had the mid-week game here they were -4 TO margin, but only -25 total yards, and -14 yards in the trenches. Duke, was -154 yards in the trenches last week. When we look at Duke's 3 losses to Virginia, Virginia Tech & Pitt they were - yardage in the trenches in all 3 games at -391 yards while North Carolina was only -117 yards. Duke has been especially bad of late, and their LB Joe Gile-Harris is doubtful to return for this game.

North Carolina has a talented running game ranking 34th in the country, and that should allow them to move the ball on a Duke team that is really struggling to stop the run right now. This is Duke's biggest favorite role vs. UNC since 1989, and I really don't see why. I get UNC is 1-7, but they were in the game against Georgia Tech last week, Virginia the week before, they lost by 3 to Syracuse on the road, 3 to Virginia Tech, they beat Pitt by 3, and they would have beaten Cal earlier in the year, and only lost by 7 despite a -4 TO margin. UNC also has advantages in special teams ranking 13th vs. Duke's 74th rating, and their pass rush that ranks 17th could give Daniel JOnes issues here. The only thing that worries me is UNC turns the ball over, which is why it's not making a higher rated play here.