I still do not know how good Notre Dame is and I am very skeptical. Notre Dame is just 3-14 ATS the last 4 years in the month of November when you have to pay a premium to back them. They are just 3-11 ATS the week after Navy, and this year they have a particularly difficult spot traveling back from San Diego where they played Navy last week. They'll be playing at Northwestern for the first time in 42 years, Notre Dame usually hosts this game or it's played at Soldier Field, and it will also be a rare night game. The only thing keeping this from a higher rated play is the fact that Northwestern has a more important game next week against Iowa, but being in a dog role against Notre Dame a nearby rival and powerhouse I doubt they'll be looking past this game. Northwestern did beat Notre Dame the last two meeting outright as a 28 point dog and 17 point dog. Now a lot of people are saying the stadium will be 80% Notre Dame fans, but I don't agree with that at all I think it will be closer to 50-50, but probably 60-65% Notre Dame fans.

These are great situation edges, and I didn't even mention Northwestern who is 9-0 ATS their last 9 as a dog. I am also 3-0 ATS backing NW this year, and 10-3 ATS over our last 13. Notre Dame has played a far weaker schedule when you look at it the defenses they have faced rank on average 85.6th in the nation in yards per play. Ian Book has had a nice start since taking over, but I think he's getting too much credit when you factor in he's thrown 4 interceptions, quietly, in his last 3 games and since taking over he has faced pass defenses ranking 99th, 100th, 77th, 89th,and 123. Meanwhile, Northwestern's pass defense ranks 42nd, the bend but don't break unit will create some issues for Notre Dame here in my opinion, especially in the red zone where they are holding opponents to 47% TD rate.

NW's run defense is not nearly as good as it typically is ranking 68th, but at home they are a lot better allowing 1.51 yards per carry less than their road games. Still, in wins they are giving up plenty of rushing yards, and they just find other ways to win like special teams. Northwestern has the edge in that category which is a big key to go along with home field advantage.

Northwestern's offense has struggled this year on paper, but they have faced some tough defenses. They have an NFL QB in Clayton Thorson who did not play well last week, but they still beat Wisconsin. Thorson has struggled, but they have faced on average a defense ranking 41st against the pass. Compare that with what Ian Book has faced since taking over and you can see we are getting value with Northwestern. Notre Dame also is not a team with much of a pass rush. They rank 73rd in getting to the QB and that is against an opponent average sack % allowed ranking 71st in the country. Basically they are slightly below average, and have faced teams who protect their QB slightly below average. Notre Dame has also struggled against pass happy teams. Vanderbilt #47 in pass play % lost at Notre Dame 22-17, but should have won the game behind a similar QB in Kyle Schurmur. Ball State, ranks 21st in pass play %, and also right in the game with Notre Dame losing 24-16. Well, Northwestern's rushing offense woke up a bit last week, but they still rely on the arm of Thorson as they are 6th in the nation in pass play %. I think this is a one possession game late just as Northwestern was with Michigan, a team that would be favored on a neutral field over Notre Dame despite losing in week 1.