Miami Ohio +7 3.3% play

Miami Ohio only 2 big losses came at the hands of Cincinnati, a team that is having an excellent season, and that game came in inclement weather, and Minnesota, a team form the BIG TEN with much more talent. The non-conference schedule for Miami Ohio having played Marshall, Minnesota, and Cincinnati is much stronger than Buffalo's schedule against an FCS, Temple who was playing poorly at the time, and Rutgers. Miami Ohio also outplayed a non-conference common opponent on the road in Army losing 30-31, vs. Buffalo who lost 13-42. 

 

The key for Miami Ohio is to run the ball here. The weather will be good enough to throw it if you want to, but that would not be smart for Miami Ohio who will be going up against a Buffalo defense that is very good against the pass ranking 11th in the nation, and 25th in sack%, 26th in yards per pass attempt defense. Buffalo's weakness is against the run where they rank 58th in yards per carry allowed and that has been against an average opponent ypc offense ranking 83rd. Miami Ohio in conference play has averaged 5.04 ypc with 11 TD's, and they are averaging 5.62 yards per carry in wins, and 2.82 ypc in losses. They have definitely focused more on running ball in conference games which I think is a good thing here on the road as they have average 42 carries in their 4 conference games compared to 26 in non-conference games. They have 3 excellent rushing games, and the good news is they were able to run the ball at Akron, a team that on paper looks like they are better at stopping the run than Buffalo. In that game they ran 38 times for 208 yards and 4 TD's in the 41-17 win. Buffalo in conference play has allowed 4.23 yards per carry. They allowed Akron who ranked 120th in yards per carry at 3.2 to rush for 3.75, and against Central Michigan who ranks 101st they allowed the Chippewas to rush for 168 yards and 4.8 yards per carry. Miami outplayed Buffalo at the line of scrimmage in last year's match-up rushing for 172 to 69 yards. Akron was another common opponent for these two teams, and Miami Ohio outplayed them at the line of scrimmage 208 rushing yards 4 TD's to 56 and 0TD's. Miami Ohio did that on the road while Buffalo hosted Akron

 

I think Miami Ohio's defense is being overlooked here in this spread. Miami Ohio ranks 24th in yards per play allowed, and that has come against a slightly better strength of schedule in terms of offenses they have faced. They rank 30th vs. the run which is the big key here considering Buffalo runs the ball 56.6% of the time. Miami Ohio 2.86 ypc allows in their wins and 1 TD, and 3.88 in their losses. Buffalo has been a team that has been steamed all year, and I greatly agree with that as I think they were a very under rated team and I backed them a few times as well, but it's now at the point of resistance for me. This is a big game to decide the MAC East, and I feel like it should be a close game as Miami Ohio takes care of the football and has a slightly better special teams team two huge keys in a game like this.