Last week I told you to close your eyes and take Uconn +34 at South Florida for our free pick winner which is now 37-13 ATS over my last 50 free college football plays. Here I say Uconn will pull the outright upset at home. The weather on Saturday in Connecticut is calling for rain, winds gusting to 15mph, and the total has dropped 8.5 points from 74 to 65.5 despite two of the worst defenses facing off against each other.

This type of weather clearly favors the Uconn Huskies who actually have run the ball well ranking 42nd in yards per play thanks to a mobile QB. Umass very poor stopping the run ranking 124th in the nation. On the flip side they are 109th in yards per carry and that has come against a very weak schedule with defenses ranking on average 75.43. The strength of Umass offense is the passing game, and they'll miss their veteran QB Ford in this game who has been downgraded to doubtful.

I mentioned these are two of the worst defenses in the nation, with Uconn sitting at #130 in yards per play allowed, and Umass at 125, but the big difference here is the strength of schedule that Uconn has faced. On average they have faced an opponent offense that ranks #28th in the country in yards per play offense. I'm not shocked that their defense is 130th. They came off the bye last week and look a lot better as the game at South Florida was 7-7 at halftime. Uconn catches a break here with the weather that benefits them in this one. Uconn won't have a strong home crowd, but it is homecoming but the weather will likely keep most people away.