South Alabama +13 4.4% POD

Does this sound like a team you want to back as a double digit road favorite? In their last game with a backup QB that they are with for the rest of the season they lost 3 TO's, had 10 penalties, and went 4-15 on third down. Troy has played on average a 114th ranked defense, and they are still holding onto their victory at Nebraska which looks less and less impressive, and Nebraska was without their starting QB Adrian Martinez and their backup is a huge downgrade.

 

Meanwhile South Alabama comes in under the radar and have faced a very challenging schedule, but with 10 days to prepare and a weak opponent last time out to get their confidence going should be in good position to pull the upset. Take a look at South Alabama's schedule they have already played 4 road games, and they have played 3 of the best group of 5 teams in the nation in App State, Memphis, and LA Tech. They then had to face a triple option Georgia Southern team in their 3rd straight road game. I am not surprised this team struggled one bit. Their offense has struggled ranking 127th in yards per play, but that has come against an average defensive opponent ranked #49.5 in defense compare that with Troy's 114th ranking and QB Evan Orth should have a quality game here. Orth is completing 67.2% of his passes has 7 TD passes and 3 INT's on the year. South Alabama's strength of schedule is the hidden gem here. They look like this awful 2-5 team facing a 5-2 team, but have faced teams who are top 50 in a lot of categories. They have also faced on average a top 50 YPP offense at 49.67, opponent rushing ypc of 49.33, an opponent QB Rating of 50.33, an average QB rating defense of 50.33.