Nevada +3 3.3% Play
This is Hawaii's 9th straight game traveling back and forth from Island can take it's toll. Here they get a Nevada team hungry for a win after facing the conference's two best teams in Fresno and Boise State. They got their QB Ty Gangi back in last week's game against Boise State and he looked excellent throwing for more than 300 yards. Nevada here has by far the better defense when we look at the fact that they rank 72nd in yards per play allowed facing an average offense ranking 67.8 in yards per play. Compare that with Hawaii who ranks 102nd and has faced opponents ranking 102.5 in yards per play on offense.
Both of these teams want to pass the ball, but it may come down to the running game, and Nevada has a distinct advantage here. Nevada ranks 53rd in rushing yards per carry and will go up against a defense that ranks 83rd, that defense has not seen many teams that can run the ball on average 91st in ypc. On the flip side Nevada is 38th in stopping the run. I think this will allow Nevada to get Hawaii into some third and longs, and they have a good enough pass rush to give Hawaii issues and force some TO's. Hawaii QB's have been sacked 21 times this year and they rank 77th in sack % allowed. That has come against very weak pass rushes ranking on average 93rd in sack %. Nevada comes in at #59, led by NFL Prospect Malik Reed, 5 sacks on the year. There is a reason why Hawaii ranks 100th in TO margin. They haven't been able to protect McDonald, and that's been against poor defenses. On average Hawaii has faced a defense ranking 88 in yards per play, 100th in opposing QB rating. Add it all up and I think Nevada will be a live dog.
