If you have been following me this year you know I am a fan of Kentucky backing them against Florida and Texas A&M. This is a great matchup for Kentucky coming off a bye where Vanderbilt is off back to back physical games in SEC play where they were dominated at the line of scrimmage. Kentucky will also get another night game at home, and the weather favors their style of play as there will be 15mph winds.
Vanderbilt's strength is their QB play of Kyle Shurmur as they throw the ball 53% of the time. I don't see him being as effective here. For one he is going up against the 8th ranked pass defense, and 29th ranked pass rush, but the wind will keep this game more on the ground. Vanderbilt is 58th in yards per carry and have faced a run defense ranked 58.3 on average. Here they face the #22 defense which has been tested having faced #48.4.
Kentucky, off the bye and not only do they have a dominating running back in Benny Snell, but they have a mobile QB in Terry Wilson which is something that Vanderbilt has not faced this year. Kentucky will run the ball over 65% of the time which is their average so their game plan in the weather won't have to change much. They'll go up against a Vanderbilt run defense that ranks 86th. This running game that is 16th in yards per carry is well tested having faced #54.8 on average.
These two have common opponents in SEC play and Vanderbilt played both of those games at home against Florida and South Carolina. It's obvious that Kentucky is the better team as they outgained those two opponents by 120 yards while Vanderbilt was outgained by 490 yards, and Kentucky has to play Florida on the road. Vanderbilt also -24% success rate in the Florida game last week so their 10 point loss was actually really misleading as they should have lost by more.
Vanderbilt has struggled big time in conference play, and we are still getting value here on Kentucky in my opinion who should control the line of scrimmage. VAnderbilt in 3 SEC games between Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina were outgained on the ground 261-112 on average. Compare that with Kentucky who faced Florida Miss State, South Carolina and they outgained them on the ground on average of 242-104. Expect 300+ yards on the ground for Kentucky as they wear out Vanderbilt in the second half and win this one by 3TD's.
