Wake Forest +10.5 4.4% play
What has Florida State proven to show that they should be a double digit favorite? They nearly upset Miami, I get that, but they only had 200 yards in that game of total offense. Florida State should have lost to an awful Louisville team teh week before that, and they were dominated on the road against a slightly above average Syracuse team. Meanwhile Wake Forest comes off a game where they were embarrassed by a hungry Clemson team. They too are off a bye, and have played Florida State well and tight the last few years.
Wake Forest, by far has faced the stronger schedule having faced Notre Dame, Clemson, and BC. Florida State has one of the worst offensive lines in the country. They have faced an average run defense ranking 95.4, and they rank 128th in the country in rushing yards per carry. Many will point out WAke Forest's 126th ranking, but they have faced a lot of great rushing attacks thus far ranking on average 61st in yards per carry. They have only given up 2 rushing TD's all season if you take away the Notre Dame & Clemson games where they gave up 12.
Offensively I think Wake Forest has balance and their up-tempo style should allow them to move the ball and score points in this game. The Florida State defense is good vs. the run, but they have faced teams that can't run the ball, and they are giving up a ton of yards on defense ranking 51st in QB rating defense they have faced on average a QB rated offense ranking 88.4. This game means much more to Wake Forest who wants to get to a bowl game Dave Clawson 16-11-1 ATS following a SU loss. Meanwhile Florida State has a game against Clemson at home next.

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