Virginia was in their second road game last year at Miami and led 28-14 late, before Miami scored the final 30 points to win 44-28 in misleading fashion a year ago as Miami was outgained by 79 yards. Virginia simply ran out of gas which is something they will not due this Saturday in a RARE night game in Virginia off a bye.

Virginia is actually expecting a good crowd here hosting Miami who they have gone 3-1 straight up since 2010 at home. They'll be off a bye while Miami is coming off an emotional victory against rival Florida State, a game they trailed 27-7. Miami just 2-3 following Florida State game the last 5 years and I expect Virginia might pull the upset.

They have the better QB here in dual threat Bryce Perkins leading an offense that ranks 31st in yards per play. Perkins has 1603 total yards, 63% completion %, 17 total TD's, and just 4 interceptions. Miami's new QB Perry did throw for 4 TD's, but completed just 13 of his 31 passes, 51% for the season. He will have issues going up against Virginia' underrated defense which ranks 42nd in adjusted D having faced 49th adjusted offense ranking. Miami's defense that has dominated has actually faced a weak offensive schedule. Their opponents on average rank 78.4 in yards per play compare that with what Virginia has had to contend with with opponents ranking 52nd in yards per play offense.

Virginia is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a bye, and Bronco Mendenhall as a head coach is 17-11 straight up. Watch out for the Turnover Toaster in this rare night game where it will be 51 degrees in Virginia. That's not the ideal environment for these Florida boys.