Purdue in their largest away favorite role since 2007, but for good reason. They come fresh off a bye here needing another win, and the matchup is favorable. First of all Purdue's defense which was supposed to take a step back this year has played very well of late. The strength of the defense is getting to the QB and stopping the run. Illinois strength is running the ball and staying out of third and long and I expect they may struggle. When you look at Illinois running game they rank 11th in yards per carry, but they have faced the 89th ranked run defense on average.

Purdue going up against a very good Boston College rushing game held that one dimensional attack to 7 points at home. Illinois also getting more % of tickets this week after they looked really good last week, but that was against Rutgers. Purdue is a Big Ten team on the rise with a top flight offense under Jeff Brohm. Illinois ranking 110th in yards per play allowed will face Purdue's #16th ranked offense, an offense that can throw it and run it. Purdue will throw it more, and Illinois can't get to the QB ranking 116th in sack % and if you can't get to the QB you are going to give up a ton of yards.

The pace of this game should be quick, and Illinois really does not slow it down enough for me to want to back them as a home dog. Even against Penn State at home as a +28 they lost after leading by 3 late. Purdue is not a team to take their foot off the gas so 10 point spread is not as high as it seems in typical situations.