California -7 1.1% Free Play 

Grabbing this number now as it is sure to go up.  UCLA played great against Washington at home last week, but this is a different story going on the road to face a Cal team that is off back to back misleading finals.  Cal lost on the road to Arizona 17-24 despite a post game win probability of 93%.  They were +211 yards in the game, but had far too many turnovers.  In Week #5 Cal was a small home dog at home to Oregon, and we actually teased it up to +8, but it was a loser as they lost 42-24.  Cal was right in that game, but had a -4 TO margin.  They were only -1.4% success rate and should have lost by less than a TD.  UCLA's road games have not been good this year as their defense is giving up 42.5 points per game.  I think Cal takes their frustrations out on UCLA here.  Of course it is entirely possible that Cal turns the ball over a ton again, and they lose, but UCLA ranks 95th in takeaways per game.  I expect a better overall game from Cal.  They are certainly due. 


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