California -7 1.1% Free Play
Grabbing this number now as it is sure to go up. UCLA played great against Washington at home last week, but this is a different story going on the road to face a Cal team that is off back to back misleading finals. Cal lost on the road to Arizona 17-24 despite a post game win probability of 93%. They were +211 yards in the game, but had far too many turnovers. In Week #5 Cal was a small home dog at home to Oregon, and we actually teased it up to +8, but it was a loser as they lost 42-24. Cal was right in that game, but had a -4 TO margin. They were only -1.4% success rate and should have lost by less than a TD. UCLA's road games have not been good this year as their defense is giving up 42.5 points per game. I think Cal takes their frustrations out on UCLA here. Of course it is entirely possible that Cal turns the ball over a ton again, and they lose, but UCLA ranks 95th in takeaways per game. I expect a better overall game from Cal. They are certainly due.
