I missed out on the early value on this line at 14.5 as the sharps gobbled that up. Still worth a play here as I feel this line should be around a TD instead.

Liberty is getting no respect here, because North Texas is coming off a road win in SEC Country over Arkansas, but largely benefited from +6 TO's and a punt return TD. Arkansas lost the week before to Colorado State, who we know is one of the worst Group of 5 teams out there. I think that game said more about how bad Arkansas is than how good North Texas is. This is back to bad road games for North Texas, and they go from arguably the biggest win in program history to traveling to Virginia to play a team that was in the FCS last year. North Texas feeling pretty happy with themselves right now but are about to face an opponent that can actually pass the ball.

Both these teams can pass the ball, but I give an edge to Liberty at home. Stephen Calvert is off to a great start and had a 29TD to 6 INT Ratio last year. North Texas, Mason Fine had 12 interceptions in road games last year. This will be an exciting game, and while the win over Arkansas was impressive I don't think they should be a double digit favorite against a team that beat Old Dominion by 42 points to open the year. Worth noting is Liberty also beat Baylor last year asa 30 point dog.