There is some value here with UNLV, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog, and they continue to improve under Tony Sanchez and are poised to get back to a bowl game this year. UNLV is a dominant running team and chooses to do so 67% of the time. This trends well in road games as a dog, and UNLV should be able to get the running game going in this game, because Arkansas State has had trouble stopping the run this year. UNLV is also a very disciplined team with just 3.7 penalties per game compared to Arkansas State who is averaging 11 penalties per game. UNLV was very impressive at USC rushing for over 300 yards in their first game and held USC to only 1 passing TD.

Arkansas State has Justin Hansen at QB, but UNLV has already proven they can stop a talented QB or hold them in check. I see a bend but don't break defense here for UNLV with strengths in the red zone. UNLV's Armani Rogers might just be better than Hansen. When we look at Arkansas State they have dominated the Sun Belt - 17-7 ATS the last 3 seasons, but outside the Sun Belt they are just 4-10 ATS. The Mountain West (UNLV's conference) is 18-12 vs. the Sun Belt since 2010 +8.7 points per game. Boise State already took down Troy this season by 36 points.