Arkansas led 27-9 entering the 4th quarter against Colorado State on the road before going on to lose 27-34 in shocking fashion. Losing to Colorado State who got blasted by Hawaii and Colorado the previous two weeks is not a good look, but I would argue Colorado State is better than what they showed in the first two games. Arkansas still looks very good offensively under Chad Morris, and has plenty of SEC talent to bounce back at home over North Texas. Worth mentioning is the fact that Chad Morris in his time at SMU had no problem beating North Texas. 54-32 last year, 34-21 the year before, 31-13 in 2015. Plenty of value here on Arkansas. North Texas is a nice team and they have really improved, but they are the public dog favorite this week with over 60% of the bets falling on them, and I just don't see it. We are getting nearly 4 points of value at -6, and with a teaser we get to take this game to a pick em which is 10 points of line value.

San Diego State will face off at home against Arizona State. Arizona State just beat a ranked foe at home and they'll face San Diego State now in their first road game under Herm Edwards. The hype train for Herman has started and this line is way out of whack. Arizona State's defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales spent years under Rocky Long at San Diego State and has implemented the same 3-3-5 defense. Nobody knows it better than Rocky Long and I expect San Diego State to have more success on the ground. I'm well aware San Diego State will be with their backup QB here, and I think Chapman really was not an asset and Ryan Agnew gives them more of an unknown to prepare for. QB injuries are always reflected in the line and so we have a couple of extra points to work with.