Illinois returns 16 starters, and already their offense has scored more points in back to back games 31 and 34 than in any game last year. South Florida has Virginia Tech transfer AJ Bush at QB, who is questionable this game, but the unknown of MJ Rivers, another mobile QB is something I am comfortable with in this game. Illinois game plan is to slow the game down and hold onto the football, and that's something they have been able to do through two games with 31 minutes time of possession. Illinois is running the ball 65% of the time and they are averaging 6 yards per carry behind Reggie Corbin. South Florida's run defense is questionable with 5 returning starters on defense they are inexperienced in the front 7. They gave up 192 yards to Elon and 419 to Georgia Tech.

South Florida had a 21% postgame win probability last week against Georgia Tech but were lucky to have +3 TO margin and 2 kick off return TD's as they were outgained by 170 yards on the day. South Florida now has to travel and play in Chicago something they are not used to. Illinois remembers the beat down from last year, but this is a very different USF team that is getting a lot of credit based on last year's results and a very lucky win last week. Ironically Illinois ranks higher in recruiting classes 3 of the last 4 years.