Iowa State +17.5 3.3% play
A lot of people are going to be jumping on Oklahoma this week. They have looked dominant in their first two weeks of the season, and there is the "revenge" angle that the media is going to hype up from last year when Iowa State went into Oklahoma and shocked the world. There is just too much value here on Iowa State, a team I can actually see pulling the upset again. They have a very underrated home field advantage, and we are getting value here, because they lost 13-3 to Iowa, but that game was much closer.
Matt Campbell has done a fantastic job here and is 11-6-1 ATS as a dog at Iowa State and dating back to his Toledo days in 2012 he is a combined 21-11-1 ATS as an underdog and 7-2 ATS as a double digit dog. He has not lost by more than 10 points since 2016 when he took Iowa State over. This Iowa State defense is legit and has proven they can stop the run. I'm not sold on Kyler Murray to go into a hostile environment for the first time and dominate and that's what he's going to have to do against Iowa State to cover this spread. I also am looking to still fade the AP Preseason Top 10. Doing so over the first 3 weeks results in a 56% ATS history over the last 6 years combined.
