Michigan State -6 2.2% Play

The game of the year line on this game is 10 points, but last week Arizona State looked great against UTSA, a team many were picking to pull the upset as the cruised to a 49-7 victory.  Michigan St meanwhile was in a dogfight against Utah State on their home field winning by just 7 points.  I'm not really worried about that Mark Dantonio will have his boys ready to play after an extra day of rest & prep for Arizona State.

Michigan State still dominated in stopping the run, and Arizona State is going to be a team that leans on the running game under Herman Edwards.  They ran the ball 35 times and threw it just 24 times in week 1 and I expect a similar run first game plan which just doesn't stack up against the Spartans.  I think we are getting the better team in X's and O's from the better conference, and the better coach.  Worth noting is 1st year head coaches in the power 5 do not do well as underdogs going 72-97 ATS since 2012.

The Big Ten has dominated the PAC 12 the last two years going 4-0 SU & ATS last bowl season.  Their only 2 losses came when Nebraska lost on the road at Oregon by only 7 points, and Rutgers lost but covered the spread against Washington.  Michigan State also has nothing to look ahead to as they'll be on a bye after this week.