Oklahoma -6.5 4.4% Play
I am backing this team for a second week in a row. All this talk about Oklahoma not having a defense has given us some line value as the line has moved 1.5 points. I actually think this is a good match-up for them facing TCU whose strength is running the ball now passing the ball. Kenny Hill's confidence is really not there right now in my opinion and where Oklahoma has been vulnerable has been against the pass. Hill's last 2 games 301 total passing yards 0 TD's and 2 INT's along with a fumble in the red zone. Oklahoma's defense has allowed 3.4 yards per carry at home, and I seem to remember them defeating Ohio State on the road, another team with a good defense, great running game and questionable QB play.
Offensively, Oklahoma is the best in the nation and I don't think it's close. They can run and pass the ball, and Baker Mayfield gets his team motivated like no other college football player. Now, TCU is a step up in class defensively, but I do believe TCU's defense can be scored on. When we look at TCU has only faced three top 50 offenses, 20, 3rd, and 14th. In those 3 games they gave up an average 490 yards (which would put them 124th in the nation), and 30.3 points per game (putting them 84th in the nation). Oklahoma #1 offense, and at home for this game where TCU played 2 of those 3 games at home and 2 of those 3 games they were out gained including by 102 yards against West Virginia.
I get that both of these teams lost to Iowa State, but I'd point out the fact that Iowa State really came out of nowhere to beat Oklahoma, at least TCU could have a game plan against Iowa State's replacement QB Kempt. At the end of the day this team is aware that they need to win, and their defense needs to play better. I also don't see them letting up at all offensively making this 6.5 point spread seem really good. I just don't think Kenny Hill can match Baker Mayfield here, and I expect Oklahoma's run defense to show up.
