West Virginia -3 -1.05 4.5% play
Iowa State going on the road after 4 weeks in a row of covering the spread by 14+ points. It's rare that you see a top 15 team going on the road facing a team that is not ranked and they are under dogs, but we have that here with Iowa State and for good reason. Iowa State is one dimensional offensively and have struggled to get the running game going all year long ranking 108th in ypc. Their offense really consists of targeting the big guys they have on the outside, but West Virginia's secondary actually has some size and match-up well here in my opinion.
West Virginia offensively I think we know they are an elite passing attack. Their three losses were against teams that were 9th, 13th, and 34th against the pass. Iowa State is 65th in passing yards allowed. All three of those teams had offenses ranked in the top 50 in yards per play. Iowa State comes in ranked #65 in yards per play offense. In 2 of those 3 games West Virginia actually outplayed their opponents. They outgained TCU by 102 yards, and they outgained Virginia Tech by 123.
Iowa State is not a sexy team. They do it with bend but don't break defense, and they do it by turning the ball over. They should have lost that game last week, but TCU turned the ball over twice inside the 10. That match-up was actually a better match-up for Iowa State than this week. The weakness of Iowa State's defense is the passing defense and Will Grier should be able to carve them up. West Virginia has outgained Iowa State in each of the last three years by 114.3 yards per game and they have won those games by 30, 24, and 13. Iowa State is no longer sneaking up on teams, and they have clearly been adjusted.
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