FIU +17 1.1% PLAY
Marshall has been a hot team and are 6-1 ATS, but they have covered 3 of their last 4 games by more than 2 TD's against the spread. They are a sell high type of team that I'm looking to fade down the stretch. FIU, comes in off a bye and extra time to prepare most likely feeling disrespected in this spot still in contention for the division. While Marshall might be peaking ahead to their showdown with Florida Atlantic.
I do think Marshall wins this game, but they are laying a premium here with 17 points against a team off a bye. I have this number 12.5 FIU has played good defense this year while Marshall's offense has not been very good with only 21 trips to the red zone and a 57% TD rate. They come in 94th in explosive plays and FIU ranks 25th in allowing explosive plays so I think this will be a close game.
It's worth mentioning that Marshall has the nation's best special teams unit. They have a punter that broke the college football record this year with a 92 yard punt. FIU not bad at 55th, but I would say that's where the biggest advantage is for Marshall. In adjusted line play FIU ranks 88th on offense compared to Marshall who ranks 111th. Defensive line play Marshall Ranks 61st to FIU's 54th.
I would not be shocked to see an upset. Marshall has 3 defensive guys who are questionable, and FIU off the bye very healthy getting no respect here.
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