Pitt +8 2.2% PLAY
I think there is some decent value here with Pitt this week who is in desperation mode having only won 2 games they need a win here in order to get on a run to get to a bowl. Their problem so far has been a tough schedule. Pitt's offense ranks 98th, and they lost their QB Max Browne, but I don't see that as a big loss, and they have faced several tough defenses on the year including 4 top 50 defenses with an overall opponent rank of average at 47.33. Compare that with Duke whose offense is ranked 115th in yards per play having faced 50th average opponent. I think both offenses are about even at this point.

Now Pitt's defense has been really disappointing ranking 122nd, but they have faced 4 top 32 programs while Duke who has a 42nd ranked defense has only faced 1 opponent in the top 80 in offense. The non-conference schedule is really the difference where Duke faced Northwestern and Baylor and Pitt played Penn State and Oklahoma State, two top 10 teams. Pitt finally faces a one dimensional offense and it's actually the worst offense they have faced all year. Pitt wins this game if they can stop the run. Duke's QB Daniel Jones has not played well throwing the ball with just 6TD's and 5 INT's while connecting on just 55.6% of his throws and 5.4 yds/attempt.

Pitt's offense won't blow us away in this game, but they faced a Syracuse team on the road and only lost by 3. The same margin that Clemson lost by a week ago. I like the fact that Pitt has a great advantage in the red zone allowing just 56% TD's while Duke struggles at 44% on offense. Duke also 63.64% TD percentage allowed while Pitt when they get into the red zone score a TD 68% of the time. Pitt also has the advantage on special teams ranking 22nd overall compared to 80th for Duke. Pitt also the least penalized team in this match up with just 3.4 per game compared to 5.3 for Duke. Pitt has struggled on the offensive line allowing 19 sacks, but Duke has also allowed 19. Both teams are + in TO margin. Overall I have a 3 point advantage on the spread I feel the tougher schedule and desperation on the Pitt side offers good value and I'm not concerned about the QB situation for Pitt.

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