Cincinnati +24 1.1% Free Play
This line is a bit high,South Florida really hasn't played well offensively or up to expectations this year. Their defense has been completely dominant and has resulted in them being huge favorites, but South Florida has had the #129th ranked strength of schedule. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has already faced Michigan, Navy, and Miami Ohio all on the road. Then they faced Marshall and Central Florida at home all good teams. South Florida hasn't faced a top 60 offense or defense. Cinci has already faced the #2 ranked offense, and the #1 ranked defense at different points this season.
Last week against Central Florida, Cincinnati lost 51-23, but they only allowed 515 yards which usually doesn't equate to 51 points. Central Florida's offense at this point far exceeds South Florida. Cinci's offense was able to put up 391 yards and scored 23 points, and I think they can have some success against South Florida who gave up 31 points to East Carolina last week and 20+ points several times this season to teams who aren't very good offensively.
South Florida's offense is extremely one dimensional, and it is the reason they struggle in the red zone. Cincinnati has been very good in red zone play allowing 57% TD percentage and they have been very good allowing 36% on third downs. South Florida 57% in the red zone for a TD% and just 43% on third down offense. Both numbers you'd expect to be higher given the competition they have faced with defenses ranked an average 90th in yards per play allowed. South Florida is also highly penalized at 10 per game and have relied heavily on 16 forced turnovers to get their big victories.
Luke Fickell is a good coach taking over here, and a good defensive mind. Take out the Navy game and this defense has been good against the run. With South Florida's Quinton Flowers completing just 52.4% of his passes that makes the game plan a bit easier here.
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