App State looked as bad as you can against a very bad Texas State team last week and are now 0-3 ATS while Wake Forest has looked as good as possible at 3-0 ATS. Actually had them as a -2.5 favorite before the season started hosting Wake Forest, but the first 3 weeks of the season has changed a lot and we are getting major line value. Actually Wake Forest is a bigger favorite here than Miami was a year ago and maybe folks remember Miami's 45-10 victory, but this is a much more manageable game for App State and I feel like they will get the upset.

In reality who has Wake Forest really played? They beat Boston College big, but had +4 TO Margin and were only +4 total yards. Utah State looks to be very bad this year and I get they are 3-0, but they are playing a very good group of 5 team. App State held Georgia to just 368 yards in their opener and had 136 yards rushing on that very good Georgia defense. Wake Forest defense has shown some vulnerabilities defending the run as they have allowed 207, 142 and 42 yards in their three games.

The running game is App State's strength behind Jalin Moore the Sun Belt player of the year. He's off to a slow start, but this running game also leans on senior Terrence Upshaw and their Sr. QB Taylor Lamb who actually had 66 yards rushing at Georgia.

App State's defense is what is flying under the radar in this game for me and I like that they are at home in what is their biggest game of the year. Wake is only 94 miles away and Wake Forest actually has Florida State on deck so this is also a possible look ahead spot.