Pittsburgh is off a very misleading final score last week. They actually outgained Penn State 342-312 but lost by 19 points. They averaged just 2.60 points in Penn State territory and were -2 TO margin and the game was definitely closer than the final indicated. Oklahoma State was -2.5 favorite at home in this match up a year ago, and this line indicates they'd be nearly a 20 point favorite at home this year. That's too big of a move in my opinion.

Pitt is 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 games following a SU loss. The key to the game is whether or not Pitt can run the ball. I don't hold a lot of trust in Max Browne. He's looked awful to start and the former USC QB, and 5 star recruit is not going to win them this game. They were able to run the ball 45 times against Penn State which was impressive and if they can do the same with Oklahoma State they will shorten this game which is what I am betting on.

Oklahoma State could be peaking ahead to their Big 12 conference game against TCU next week and showed vulnerabilities against the run against Tulsa (244 yards rushing) and they gave up nearly 300 in last year's match up. Pittsburgh at home where they have been very good under Narduzi going 6-1 last year (1-0 ATS as a dog).